GameMaster,
Can you answer a question about Pai Gow Poker? Can it be beaten if you're the dealer some, or most, of the time? What if you bet minimum when house or other player deals and bank the rest of the time? Thanks for a great site!

Jeff
Dear Jeff,

Yes, you can gain an advantage in Pai Gow poker by acting as the banker as much as possible, while betting the minimum when another is banking. In Las Vegas, where the house takes a 5% rake on the winning bets, an edge of about .3% is possible, but that can be larger if you're playing against unskilled bettors. In California, where the house charges a $1 per hand or so, the edge a banker has is about 1.25%, minus the 'rake'. An excellent book on the topic is "Optimal Strategy for Pai Gow Poker" by Stanford Wong.

GameMaster,
I have been receiving your email for information regarding your website so i starting browsing through some of your articles. I was interested in the article about the best way to win at blackjack. The problem is that i don't know the basis behind card counting and what you meant by when the deck is "positive". I was wondering if you could send me information regarding card counting for blackjack or refer me to a site where i could read more about it. You also mentioned to send info regarding the team to help us in money management. Since i'm sure that card counting isn't something i'll pick up overnight this may be premature, but i will send you this info anyway. Thank you for your time and I look forward to your response!

Regarding a 'positive' deck at Blackjack, this is determined by 'counting' the cards and when there are a higher proportion of 10s and Aces remaining than 'small' cards (2-6), the deck is considered favorable for the player. A complete explanation can be found at my web site on the Blackjack Page. Team play is a very effective way to approach the game, IF all the team members are counters and they can combine their $$$. You'll need a minimum of $6000 for this approach and you need to learn counting, first. Why not get your group together and start on my lessons? E-mail me if you need help.

GameMaster,
I have read most of what I can find on your site concerning video poker, but the Advisor columns have brought a few more questions to mind.

You stress repeatedly (and rightly so) that the gains on VP machines are long-term, depend on perfect play, and that one must have a sufficient bankroll to achieve the promised rewards. But I am a very casual gambler, at best. My gambling (with the exception of a few minor excursions into online gambling) is done in a single annual 3-day visit to Las Vegas. At best I can only average about 400 hands per hour; my top is actually a little better than 500, but I am unable to maintain my concentration for an entire hour, probably more like 20-30 min, after which I need to take a break. So even if I'm at the machine for 12 hours per day, that's only 4800 hands/day X 3 days = a little more than 14000 hands in a typical stay. This obviously decreases the likelihood of getting a Royal in any one visit. So, to my questions:

(1) Is there some way the casual gambler can increase the chances of getting that Royal? In other words, do the casinos make available information like how many hands have been played on a particular machine since the last Royal? If so, it seems to me that by playing a machine that hasn't hit for the past 35000 hands or so, one would stand a better chance of getting a Royal (statistically speaking, of course--I realize that it still wouldn't be a sure thing). Thus a smaller bankroll could be used (I can only afford between $500-1000 per visit).

You can increase the chances of getting a royal by drawing to all two- and three-card royals which are dealt to you, but it's at a cost of the near-term returns like two-pair, etc. You have to remember that the statistics here don't know you're on your only trip of the year and your results aren't wiped out when you leave town. You will, on average, see a Royal every 40,000 hands, if you play proper basic strategy. You can cut that to maybe 28,000 hands but it isn't worth it if you're going to continue to play in the future. The long-term odds *will* have their way.

As for the concept of whether or not a machine hit a Royal recently is immaterial; those little devices don't know they hit a Royal, they only know they dealt one of a billion sequences of cards. We were the ones who recognized it as a Royal. (Sure, the lights, etc, go off when one hits, but these are random devices). What matters is what you see and the only thing we can say with certainty is that, after 4,000,000 hands or so, you'll average a Royal every 40,000 hands. I've hit 3 Royals within 2000 hands of play and I've gone 186,000 hands without one.

(2) What constitutes "perfect play"? Everyone is going to make mistakes, but what is an acceptable error rate that will still yield an acceptable return?

It depends upon the game. Less-than-perfect play at a game with a long term return of 100.7% is more forgiving than similar play at a game with a long term return of 99.5%. On the Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker program, you can check your accuracy at a particuler game and I think 99.75% (on the 'total return' side) is easily attainable with 30-40 hours of practice.

GameMaster,
Thanks to your articles (and the help of "Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker", which you reviewed), I think I may finally be ready to actually at least come out even the next time I visit Las Vegas.

But I do have a question: does the coin size of a machine ever come into play? Or should one only look at the "expected return" values as expressed in *coins* when deciding what to keep? I ask because of the following hand I got in Deuces Wild while playing WinPoker:

2S 2H JD QD KC

The advice was to keep the deuces, the jack and the queen, thus guaranteeing a 3 of a kind, but giving up the straight.

Now, on a quarter machine, the "loss" if you get, say, a 4H, would only be $1.25; on a dollar machine, $5, and, of course, on a 5-dollar machine, $25. Presumably those playing 5 dollar machines have the bucks to spare, so a raw dollar amount of $25 wouldn't matter to them quite as much as it would to me. But lots of people do play the dollar machines, at least sometimes, although they normally play the quarters (include me in that category). If I took that straight, granted I'd be risking a "loss" of considerably more if the right card comes in, but I'd be assured of having that extra $5, which I could then take to a quarter machine and use to play 4 hands there. All of which came together to bring this question to my mind.
Thank you,
George

Dear George,
First, thanks for the compliments and good luck on your next trip to Sin City.

As for your question regarding the coin size, it shouldn't make a difference, but I know how you feel. When I first got involved with VP a few years ago, I mostly played quarters, but found myself at a dollar machine one night and I was down to my last 5 credits. I bet them and was dealt a flush which consisted of a four-card Royal and a small card. The correct play is to go for the Royal, but I held the flush to get the 30 bucks. I've always wondered if I would have gotten The Big One (probably not, since the odds are 46 to 1) and today I wouldn't hesitate to throw away the little guy. But a really good hand has to be taken in context. If you only play a lttle each year, it's not the worst mistake to settle for a sure thing. It's only a problem if you do it all the time.

GameMaster,
Do you know if card counting is "illegal" in Mississippi or will they politely ask you to play any other game but blackjack?

Card counting is not illegal in any jurisdiction of the U. S., but some casinos may ask skilled players to not indulge in Blackjack. The 'trick' is to disguse your skills, as I teach in my lesson "Casino Playing Tactics" which can be found on the Blackjack Page of my site.

Hot Tip of the Month:You should always take advantage of free odds at craps. If you're a $10 bettor, you can put $10 on the pass line with no odds and buck a 1.4% house edge, or you can put $5 on the pass line, $5 as an odds bet and lower the house 'vig' to .85%. Same amount bet, lower risk. -the GameMaster

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